从之前的敌人演变成今天的buddy! 感觉有点尴尬叻~~~
星期六那天就从星洲的IPHONE APPS看到关于亚航和马航的新闻，当时还不以为异， 谁知道星期一双双暂停交易， 这么快就成局了？？真的是之前一点蛛丝马迹都没有。。。当然马航和亚航双双逃过星期一和二的烂市。。。。双方互换股权的消息就从此满天讨论， 谣言四起， 投资银行业纷纷分析这项互换股权的举动。。。。。
星期三恢复交易，意外的是， 双方股价呈两极化， 马航大涨， 亚航大跌。。。。一直都不明白为什么会有这种局面。。。。。股价从直接从3.95一路向南到闭市的3.54。。。非常不爽啊！！！
外評選讀：馬航亞航互惠互利
馬來西亞航空公司與亞洲航空公司通過交換股權進行合作，應受到正面看待，因為雙方都能從中獲得很多益處。最重要的是，人們要知道亞航控制馬航的傳言是不真實的。
航空業對國家經濟非常重要，將繼續成為國庫控股主要投資項目。社會必須明白馬航通過國庫控股將20.5%的股份交給亞航創辦人丹斯裡東尼費爾南德斯及拿督卡馬魯丁‧梅蘭努是馬航與亞航之間的合作方式。亞航也會將同樣數量的股票交給國庫控股。
顯然的，這交易是公平的，沒有人將受到控制。從法律的角度來看，雙方也簽訂了合約。
讓我們忘了馬航與亞航多年來的紛爭吧。現今航空業已因油價上漲，而進入競爭非常激烈的階段。我們也希望這兩家公司在這次的股權交換不會發生糾紛。
馬航與亞航各有所長，各有弱點。現在亞航有責任協助解決馬航面對的問題，馬航也有責任協助亞航。馬航可以向亞航學習行銷策略，而亞航也可以學習馬航的先進技術。
馬航與亞航關於航線的紛爭也應該結束了。與其繼續爭執不下，不如互相合作。為了我國航空公司的發展，馬航與亞航的董事必須確保這次的合作能夠成功。最重要的是，兩家公司的合作能提升我國航空公司的國際競爭力，更能提升服務素質。
《馬來西亞前鋒報》評論10/8/2011鄭丁賢.亞航.馬航.加魯達
2011-08-11 09:55
朋友凱林是典型的空中飛人，雖然坐飛機的時間，不會比坐汽車多，但是，還是比蹲馬桶的時間長。
那天，他問一個問題：“你對加魯達的印象如何？”
我愣了一會，加魯達是那一位仁兄？多久沒見面了？
“我說的是印尼航空公司Garuda”，他提醒。
噢，加魯達航空。
很抱歉，這家航空公司似乎不怎麼起眼；唔，好多年前，還發生一宗空中謀殺案。一位印尼人權鬥士，在加魯達飛歐洲班機上，被印尼情報機關聯合飛機師，把他給毒死了。
這是我對加魯達留下的印象。
我據實告訴凱林。
他回答：“老兄，你有所不知，今天的加魯達，已經不是過去的加魯達。它經過整頓後，以新面貌出現，奐然一新；如果和馬航比較，它的飛機更新，服務更好，更加準時準點。”
只差沒說空姐更美麗體貼。
我有點不服氣。我向來支持馬航，感覺親切；雖然它有弱點，但說它不如加魯達，一時難以接受。
不過，後來想想，朋友的親身體驗，應該比我的印象和情感判斷，來得更為準確。
馬航如果不如加魯達，不是因為馬航退步，而是人家進步更快。
航空公司的水平，可以象徵一個國家的情況。印尼這幾年的發展很快，很多領域超越大馬；這如同加魯達的進步，可以趕上馬航的原地踏步。
談到馬航，它今年第一季營運虧損2億6千700萬令吉，令人嘆息。這次的差勁表現，不能歸咎於外圍因素；一些競爭者在同期可以有亮麗的表現。
亞航同期盈利1億7千萬令吉，相比之下，可以見到馬航的憔悴。
過去，馬航是老大，亞航是小弟；但是，今天的地位已經倒轉。
亞洲股價節節上升，如今市值是110億令吉；馬航股價往下滑，今天市值僅53億令吉。
過去的小弟，今天比昔日的老大，足足大了一倍。
如今，亞航和馬航換股，東尼以10%亞航股權，換了20.5%馬航股權。
東尼橫跨兩航，儼然已是航空大王，這要拜馬航之不濟所賜。
馬航包袱太重，營運方式和企業文化，比較保守；加上冗員和成本高居不下，難以高飛。
馬航接受換股，也是接受時不我予的現實。
換股之後，亞航從競爭者，化身為策略伙伴，讓馬航換取了生存空間。
而東尼一腳跨入馬航，也得到好處，從原本的經營廉航市場，擴大到國際航空市場。
當然，人們也期待，東尼那種化腐朽為神奇的本領，可以用在馬航，讓馬航再次起飛。
鸳鸯错配记？！（马航亚航换股前章
作者：懂写董想（董嘉欣） 周三, 2011年 08月 10日 20:57
随着传出我国两大航空巨头于近日以换股方式进行合作，那就表示大马的航空业将不会再有竞争；马航、亚航很快就“大团圆”，结为一家。
换句话说，我国平民百姓也许很快就要向享有廉价机票的日子告别；“EVERYONE CAN FLY”这句醒目的口号也将成为绝响。一般低收入打工仔日后休想再“打经济牌”到国外旅行，退而求次响应我国旅游部提倡的“CUTI CUTI MALAYSIA”吧！
这项所谓的合作，恐是变相垄断的低劣行为；利益最后将会全数归于航空业者，而我们这群人微言轻的蚁民却是最大输家。在这事件上，广大人民皆被某一小撮高人一等的人“按着来抢”，却也投诉无门。
我国政府却为此番恐会严重侵蚀人民利益的大计大开绿灯，还信誓旦旦的表示，若这项计划一旦事成，将会让马航与亚航有更加充分合作，令人深感纳闷。
试问他们这项合作会否为真正我国人民带来任何好处？一般市民是难以理解接受如此歪论。生意人只会在乎大财团的盈亏利益，却无视其他两千多万人民基本利益。试问垄断之下的航空业，社会责任的履行又能有几分？
马航一直以来都是烧钱的黑洞，赤字连年却仍不见关门大吉。普罗大众始终不明白为何我国政府还依然死抱不放？是为面子问题或有其他更加有力的理由？想也想不不通，猜也猜不透！
既然它是一家无可救药的企业，何不就让市场把它淘汰；让有能者取而代之，这才是健康市场良性竞争之道。
不然，为了拯救连年亏损的马航而“错配鸳鸯”，纵然日后泛起悔恨之心，亦回天乏力。
换句话说，我国平民百姓也许很快就要向享有廉价机票的日子告别；“EVERYONE CAN FLY”这句醒目的口号也将成为绝响。一般低收入打工仔日后休想再“打经济牌”到国外旅行，退而求次响应我国旅游部提倡的“CUTI CUTI MALAYSIA”吧！
这项所谓的合作，恐是变相垄断的低劣行为；利益最后将会全数归于航空业者，而我们这群人微言轻的蚁民却是最大输家。在这事件上，广大人民皆被某一小撮高人一等的人“按着来抢”，却也投诉无门。
我国政府却为此番恐会严重侵蚀人民利益的大计大开绿灯，还信誓旦旦的表示，若这项计划一旦事成，将会让马航与亚航有更加充分合作，令人深感纳闷。
试问他们这项合作会否为真正我国人民带来任何好处？一般市民是难以理解接受如此歪论。生意人只会在乎大财团的盈亏利益，却无视其他两千多万人民基本利益。试问垄断之下的航空业，社会责任的履行又能有几分？
马航一直以来都是烧钱的黑洞，赤字连年却仍不见关门大吉。普罗大众始终不明白为何我国政府还依然死抱不放？是为面子问题或有其他更加有力的理由？想也想不不通，猜也猜不透！
既然它是一家无可救药的企业，何不就让市场把它淘汰；让有能者取而代之，这才是健康市场良性竞争之道。
不然，为了拯救连年亏损的马航而“错配鸳鸯”，纵然日后泛起悔恨之心，亦回天乏力。
‘Mystery’ shrouded deal to save AirAsia?
Why is Khazanah giving away 20.5% in 'asset'-rich MAS, which has an extensive network and prized position in the Tier-5 airline market, for a stake in debt-ridden AirAsia?
The boss of Khazanah Nasional says that the MAS-AirAsia deal is, among other things, “not a bail-out” of MAS.
Well, we have questions for him.
Firstly, why was this deal worked out in the first place? Why AirAsia? Isn’t AirAsia operating at some 40 times its price earning (PE) ratio?
Looking at its numbers and the fundamentals, the high PE could mean that AirAsia stocks are overpriced.
That may mean some boys are cooking up the numbers to set up the market and make killings.
Former prime minister Dr Mahathir Mohamad said MAS “can learn” from AirAsia on ways to cut costs.
Does that mean all those damned exercise carried out by former MAS chief Idris Jala wasn’t enough? Why don’t we learn from Singapore Airlines or Qatar Airlines?
Oh… we want to learn from our home-grown talent will be the likely answer.
Commissions, commissions
I know this is a BAD deal because Mahathir said so. Mahathir always says something when he actually means the reverse.
I know this is a BAD deal because Mahathir said so. Mahathir always says something when he actually means the reverse.
So what can we learn from AirAsia?
Let’s look at the home-grown talent’s (AirAsia) records. As of the first quarter of 2011, AirAsia debts amounted to RM7.7 billion with cash balances amounting to RM1.7 billion.
This part doesn’t require teaching for MAS. Its executives are renowned masters.
Let’s see further. In August 2010, AirAsia announced a deferment of its proposed aircraft purchases but sometime in June 2011 it reversed its decision and proceeded to place an order for an additional 200 new aircraft at the Paris Air Show.
No big deal, we can order as many as we want.
Possibly the commissions earned from the purchases dwarfed the one earned from the Scorpene submarines.
AirAsia’s skyrocketing debts
AirAsia’s skyrocketing debts
As of March 31, 2011 (first quarter report), AirAsia’s capital commitments stood at RM19 billion.
With the latest announcement, an additional RM54 billion will be added as capital commitments. The proposed capital commitments of about RM74 billion will be spread over a 15-year period ending 2026.
In other words, AirAsia has to increase its earnings to an average of RM5 billion per annum to meet its future dues.
From 2006 to 2010, AirAsia’s revenue grew by ten-fold from RM110 million to roughly RM1.1 billion. This is an average growth of RM 200 million per annum.
Now how will it reach RM5 billion?
This, we will see in the coming months when AirAsia rationalises all its routes and what not.
AirAsia’s cash reserves rose six-fold from approximately RM300 million to RM1.7 billion. But its debts skyrocketed from RM1.05 billion in 2006 to RM7.7 billion in 2010, an increase of 700%.
Surely this looks like a debt burden that is spiralling out of control.
Scheming Fernandes
This AirAsia-MAS deal is signed, sealed and delivered at an onerous and ominous time.
The world economy, including Asia’s, will be heading into another maelstrom and air travel will invariably be hit.
So what can be done?
One, AirAsia can cancel orders but contract penalties will be onerous.
AirAsia wouldn’t want to pay penalties, would it? The debt with Malaysia Airports Bhd (MAB) too, it dragged on for what seemed to be forever.
Also, AirAsia chief Tony Fernandes is probably thinking along what economist John Keynes said: “When you are a big borrower, the banks are scared of you.”
So as a big borrower, Fernandes feels that size does matter after all!
He thinks it will shield him from foreclosure as banks will be wary of bearing heavy losses!
But also, a sizeable chunk of those loans are being held by Malaysian banks and in the worst-case scenario, the government and the taxpayers will have to pick the tab to avert a financial meltdown cascading down the AirAsia slope.
AirAsia – bad debtor
AirAsia – bad debtor
Now let’s take a look at MAS, currently the whipping boy but which is instrumental to further the game being played by Khazanah boss Azman Mokhtar and gang.
MAS has a paid-up capital of RM3.384 billion and has a fixed asset value of RM8.4 billion.
Its net asset is at RM 6.962 billion, where cash constitutes RM 2.086 billion.
Compare that to the position of AirAsia, which we have pointed out above. AirAsia has borrowings of up to RM7.7 billion and its cash position is RM1.7 billion.
In an earlier article, we pointed out that AirAsia has a record of being a bad debtor. It once owed MAB over RM65 million and whenever actions were taken against them, AirAsia would run to their chief counsel, former premier Abdullah Ahmad Badawi.
Now of course AirAsia has Mahathir on its side and also the abrasive and aggressive former International Trade and Industry Minister, Rafidah Aziz, who can be counted on to also be its enforcer.
MAS’ strenghts
MAS’ wealth is actually its network and position in the Tier-5 airline market. MAS’ annual operating turnover is RM12.98 billion versus AirAsia’s RM 3.948 billion.
MAS’ operating revenue from airline operation is at RM11.649 billion against AirAsia’s RM2.839 billion.
Whatever you “name” this MAS-AirAsia – “merger” or “coorperation” – it is a mystery-shrouded takeover with elements of manipulation and failure of disclosures.
Khazanah is giving away 20.5% of its holding in a company with a bigger network, acclaimed higher standard of service, much bigger operating revenue, stronger assets, lesser debts, more cash and better paymaster track record to another company with lesser track record.
AirAsia’s strength is that it excels in hyped-up marketing and showing it can make a lot of net money in shorter time.
The writer is a former Umno state assemblyman and a FMT columnist. This excerpt is from his blog sakmongkolak47.
No comments:
Post a Comment